Gabatarwa: Ga duka hannun jarin Hong Kong da A, shekarar 2026 ta fi kama da "shekarar sake fasalin tattalin arziki" - ma'aunin ba zai yi kyau ba, amma kuɗaɗen za su fi karkata ga sassan da ke da wasu riba da kuma alkiblar da za a iya tantancewa bisa ga manufofi. Binciken da Hang Seng Investment ta yi kwanan nan ya kuma nuna cewa muhimman abubuwan da ke cikin hannun jarin Hong Kong suna canzawa daga "gyaran kimantawa" zuwa "bisa ga ribar da aka samu," kuma yana ba da ma'anar tsarin rabon P/E da aka yi hasashen ya kai kusan sau 11.6 da kuma hasashen karuwar riba ta kusan kashi 10% ga Ma'aunin Hang Seng a shekarar 2026. (Bankin Hang Seng)
A wata ma'anar, Shekarar Doki ba za ta rasa damammaki ba, amma zai fi kama da shekarar "zaɓi mai tsari".
Da farko, bari mu fayyace tsarin gabaɗaya: A wannan shekarar, kasuwa tana yin suka ga abubuwa uku.
1) Ruwan shara: Sauƙaƙawar gefe ya kasance babban canji
Idan kasuwa ta yi hasashen cewa Babban Bankin Tarayya da manyan bankunan tsakiya har yanzu suna da sararin manufofi, kadarorin haɗari suna fitowa cikin sauƙi daga lokacin "danne darajar kuɗi"; kuma hannun jarin Hong Kong sun fi saurin kamuwa da rashin ruwa na waje, wanda kuma yana ɗaya daga cikin mahimman abubuwan da suka shafi sake kimanta hannun jarin Hong Kong. (Bankin Hang Seng)
2) Manufofi: Sabbin ingantattun ayyuka sun koma daga taken taken zuwa cikakken aiwatarwa.
A shekarar 2026, an ware "Bayanan Sirri na Artificial+", na'urorin robot, tattalin arzikin ƙasa mai tsayi, da sabbin kayan aikin makamashi a matsayin manyan masana'antu don haɓaka ta manyan lardunan tattalin arziki da dama, wanda ke nuna sauyi a manufofi daga "bayanan alkibla" zuwa "aiwatar da injiniya." (Hukumar Labarai ta Xinhua)
3) Riba: Kuɗaɗen sun fi son biyan kuɗi don kadarorin da za a iya "gyara".
Binciken Hang Seng Investments ya kuma jaddada cewa muhimman abubuwan da ke cikin hannun jarin Hong Kong suna canzawa daga gyaran ƙima zuwa ci gaban da ke haifar da riba, kuma fa'idodin AI a cikin kasuwancin e-commerce, wasannin kan layi, da tallan kan layi na iya zama ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da ke haifar da haɓaka riba. (Bankin Hang Seng)
II. Manyan Jigogi Uku na Hong Kong da Hannun Jari na A a Shekarar Doki: Daga "Jigogi" zuwa "Ribar Masana'antu"
Muna da kyakkyawan fata game da fasaha, albarkatun da ke sama, da kuma gasa a duniya. Idan aka haɗa da manufofi na yanzu da yanayin kasuwa, waɗannan manyan jigogi uku za a iya bayyana su a sarari kamar haka:
1) Jigon Fasaha: Fasaha mai ƙarfi + AI sun kasance babban fagen fama don "sabon yawan aiki mai inganci".
A wannan shekarar, fannin fasaha a hannun jarin A da na Hong Kong ya fi kama da tsarin "raba alkama da ƙaiƙayi": labaran gabaɗaya za su ragu, amma kamfanonin da za su iya mayar da AI zuwa riba ko sayar da "buƙatun AI" (ƙididdigar kayayyakin more rayuwa, muhimman abubuwan da aka haɗa, software na masana'antu/abubuwan bayanai) sun fi samun kuɗi. Cikakkiyar haɓaka "AI+" a yankuna daban-daban ta kuma sa wannan jigon ya zama matsakaici zuwa dogon lokaci. (Hukumar Labarai ta Xinhua)
2) Jigon Albarkatu da Makamashi: Damammaki a cikin karafa marasa ƙarfe, kayan aikin wutar lantarki, da sinadarai sun samo asali ne daga "sabon tsarin buƙata".
Albarkatun gargajiya ba su dogara ne kawai da "tsoffin zagayawa ba." Ƙaruwar buƙatar wutar lantarki da AI da cibiyoyin bayanai ke haifarwa yana dawo da kayan aikin makamashi da grid cikin labarin ci gaban: Hukumar Ba da Bayani kan Makamashi ta Amurka (EIA) ta yi hasashen cewa amfani da wutar lantarki a Amurka zai ci gaba da kaiwa ga sabbin matsayi a cikin 2026 da 2027, wanda, a wani ɓangare, ya haifar da ƙaruwar amfani da wutar lantarki daga cibiyoyin bayanai na AI da crypto. (Reuters)
Idan wutar lantarki ta zama wani sabon abu na samarwa, hasashen tattalin arziki na albarkatun da ke sama (musamman manyan karafa da kayan sinadarai) da kayan aikin wutar lantarki za su fi kwanciyar hankali.
3) Zuwa Duniya: Dawowar "Ƙarfin Farashi na Riba" a Gasar Cin Kofin Duniya
Daga hannun jarin Hong Kong zuwa hannun jarin A, darajar kamfanoni da suka shiga duniya ba wai kawai ta ta'allaka ne a kan karuwar kudaden shiga ba, har ma da daidaiton ribar da aka samu ta hanyar iko kan nau'ikan kayayyaki, tashoshi, da hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki. Lokacin da asusun duniya ya sake tantance rabon kadarorinsu a China, kamfanonin da ke da hannun jari a kasuwar duniya, bin ƙa'idodin ƙasashen waje, da kuma ikon zama a cikin gida suna da yuwuwar samun nasara a cikin "sake fasalin kimantawa" (musamman tunda yawancin kamfanonin da ke cikin jerin Hong Kong masu inganci waɗanda suka shiga duniya har yanzu ba a kimanta su sosai ba). (Bankin Hang Seng)
III. Yin bitar "Jerin Ƙananan Kyauta Uku na wannan shekara": CCSR, Kasuwancin Jiragen Sama, da Ƙarfin Kwamfuta na Makamashi
Waƙa ta 1: CCSR (Hakkin Carbon x Nauyin Jama'a na Kamfanoni) daga "Bayyanawa" zuwa "Gwamnati da Ciniki"
(1) Kasuwar carbon tana samar da "bayanai masu ƙarfi" da za a iya ƙididdigewa.
Ma'aikatar Muhalli da Muhalli ta bayyana cewa zuwa karshen shekarar 2025, kasuwar cinikin hayakin carbon ta kasa ta tara yawan cinikin tan miliyan 865 da darajar ciniki ta yuan biliyan 57.663; a shekarar 2025 kadai, yawan kudin da ake biya na hayakin ya kai tan miliyan 235 kuma darajar ciniki ta kai yuan biliyan 14.63, tare da adadin kammala yarjejeniyar da kashi 99.99%. (Hukumar Kula da Kasuwa ta Jiha)
Wannan yana nufin cewa CCSR ba wai kawai aikin tallatawa bane, amma ya shiga matakin "gano farashi + ƙuntatawa ga bin ƙa'idodi".
(2) Bayyanar ESG/mai dorewa ta A-share ta shiga cikin lokacin hanzarta kafa kamfanoni
Hukumar Kula da Tsaro ta China (CSRC) ta bayyana cewa kamfanoni 1,869 da aka lissafa sun fitar da rahotannin dorewarsu na shekarar 2024, wanda ke wakiltar adadin bayyana bayanai na kusan kashi 34.7%. Daga cikin kamfanonin da suka bayyana rahotannin, adadin bayyana bayanai game da hadurra da damammaki da suka shafi yanayi, da kuma fitar da hayakin iskar gas mai gurbata muhalli, ya karu sosai.
A halin yanzu, Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta Shanghai da Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta Shenzhen sun fitar da ka'idoji don rahotannin ci gaba mai ɗorewa (aiwatar da gwaji), wanda za a aiwatar daga watan Mayu na 2024. (Cibiyar Sabis ta Kasuwar Tsaro ta China)
(3) Bayyana yanayin kasuwar hannayen jari ta Hong Kong yana kan hanyar yin daidai da ISSB
Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta Hong Kong (HKEX) tana ci gaba da bayyana yanayi ta hanyar la'akari da IFRS S2 kuma tana shirin gudanar da shawarwari kan kasuwa kan "bayyana bayanai na dole bisa ga ka'idojin bayyana bayanai na dorewa na Hong Kong" a shekarar 2027, tare da sa ran aiwatarwa a hankali ba daga baya ba sai a shekarar 2028. (HKEX)
Alamun da aka ba da shawarar don matsayi (aiki): hanyoyin rage fitar da hayakin carbon da hanyoyin rage fitar da hayaki, sarrafa kadarorin carbon da iyawar ciniki, sa ido kan sarkar samar da kayayyaki da kuma kula da alhakin zamantakewa, da kuma cikakkiya da kuma tantance bayanai (ma'auni akan musayar bayanai da tsarin ISSB).
Waƙa ta Biyu: Tashar Jiragen Sama ta Kasuwanci da Kayayyakin Samarwa: Daga "Yawan Farawa" zuwa "Farashi da Amfani da shi"
(1) Masana'antar ta shiga matakin "samar da watsawa mai yawan mita + isar da kaya ta kasuwanci".
A cewar wani rahoto da Hukumar Kula da Sararin Samaniya ta Kasar Sin (CNSA) ta fitar, za a yi harba taurarin kasuwanci guda 50 a shekarar 2025.
Kafafen yada labarai da dama sun ambato bayanai, suna nuna cewa yanzu haka ƙaddamar da kasuwanci ya kai fiye da rabin dukkan ayyukan ƙaddamar da kayayyaki a wannan shekarar, yana nuna cewa masana'antar tana shiga cikin lokacin ci gaba mai sauri. (South China Morning Post)
(2) Sake amfani da sabbin abubuwan hawa suna ƙayyade yanayin farashi
Kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya ruwaito cewa wannan shi ne karo na hudu da aka fara aikin harba kumbon gwaji na kasar Sin tun daga shekarar 2020. Muhimmancin fasahar sake amfani da ita yana cikin rage farashin aikin guda daya da kuma kara yawan ayyukan.
A ɓangaren rokoki na kasuwanci, Reuters ta kuma ruwaito cewa kamfanoni masu zaman kansu suna ci gaba da samun ci gaba a cikin rokoki masu amfani da methane da rokoki masu sake amfani da su.
(3) "Kamfanin tauraron dan adam - tashar ƙasa - aikace-aikacensa" yana haifar da ƙaruwar girma a ƙasa
A cewar jaridar China Youth Daily, an harba motocin harba kayayyaki na kasuwanci guda 25 a shekarar 2025, kuma an sanya tauraron dan adam na kasuwanci guda 311 a sararin samaniya a duk tsawon shekarar, wanda hakan ya samar da cikakkiyar sarkar masana'antu daga masana'antu da harbawa zuwa aikace-aikace. (China Youth Online)
Ma'aunin da aka ba da shawarar don yin wannan matsayi sun haɗa da : odar kasuwanci da ƙarfin isarwa, ƙimar nasarar ƙaddamar da aiki da ci gaban sake amfani da shi, maye gurbin muhimman abubuwan da ke cikin gida (inji/kayayyaki/lantarki/ma'auni da sarrafawa), ingancin samar da taro na tauraron dan adam, da kuma kuɗaɗen shiga mai ɗorewa daga aikace-aikacen ƙasa (sadarwa/jinkirin nesa/ kewayawa).
Waƙa ta 3: Makamashi × Lissafi: "Sabon Labarin Tsarin Wutar Lantarki" a Zamanin AI
(1) Yarjejeniyar Duniya: Amfani da wutar lantarki a cibiyar bayanai zai zama wani abu mai mahimmanci.
Hukumar IEA ta nuna cewa ana hasashen yawan amfani da wutar lantarki a duniya ga cibiyoyin bayanai zai ninka zuwa kusan 945 TWh nan da shekarar 2030 a karkashin wani yanayi na asali. (IEA)
Hukumar Kula da Bayanai kan Makamashi ta Amurka (EIA) ta kuma yi hasashen cewa amfani da wutar lantarki a Amurka zai ci gaba da kaiwa ga sabbin matsayi a shekarar 2026 da 2027, tare da AI da cibiyoyin bayanai su ne manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da hakan. (Reuters)
(2) Tsarin China: Sarrafa bayanai daga Gabas zuwa Yamma + haɗin gwiwar kwamfuta da wutar lantarki, mai da "kore wutar lantarki" zuwa "kore kwamfuta".
An ƙaddamar da aikin "Gabas zuwa Yamma Kwamfuta" a shekarar 2022, inda aka gina manyan cibiyoyin samar da wutar lantarki guda takwas da kuma tsara rukunin cibiyoyin samar da bayanai guda goma na ƙasa. Bayanan hukuma sun nuna cewa ya zuwa ƙarshen Maris 2024, ƙarfin sarrafa kwamfuta na rukunonin goma ya wuce raka'o'in yau da kullun miliyan 1.46, tare da wasu cibiyoyin samar da bayanai na zamani sun cimma ƙimar amfani da wutar lantarki mai kore kusan kashi 80%. (Kwamishinan Kimiyya da Fasaha na Ƙasa Cibiyar Ba da Bayani kan Tsarin)
A halin yanzu, "Shirin Aiki na Musamman don Ci gaban Cibiyoyin Bayanai na Kore da Ƙananan Carbon" yana ba da shawarar kafa tsarin haɗin gwiwa tsakanin wutar lantarki da wutar lantarki nan da ƙarshen 2025, tare da wutar lantarki mai kore wanda ke da alhakin fiye da kashi 80% na sabbin cibiyoyin bayanai da aka gina a cibiyoyin sadarwa na ƙasa, kuma yana ƙarfafa binciken samar da wutar lantarki mai kore kai tsaye. (Hukumar Ci Gaba da Gyaran Ƙasa)
Hukumar Kula da Bayanai ta Ƙasa ta kuma gabatar da wani shiri na musamman don haɗakar kwamfuta da wutar lantarki a wurare da dama, inda za a mai da hankali kan ƙirƙirar hanyoyin samar da wutar lantarki kai tsaye, haɗin gwiwa tsakanin tushe da tushe, da kuma hulɗar bayanai tsakanin tushe da tushe. (Hukumar Kula da Taskar Labarai ta Ƙasa)
Ma'aunin da aka ba da shawarar don matsayi : PUE da fasahar inganta makamashi kamar sanyaya ruwa/maido da zafi, rabon wutar lantarki kore da ikon samar da kayayyaki kai tsaye, aiwatar da haɗin gwiwar adana bayanai (source-grid-load-storage), amfani da wutar lantarki da kwararar kuɗi mai ɗorewa, da "ROI mai aunawa" da aka bayar don aikace-aikacen AI.
Kammalawa: "Tabbacin" yanayin kasuwar Shekarar Doki ya samo asali ne daga rufewar masana'antu da za a iya tabbatarwa.
A taƙaice, harshen kasuwa na yau yana nufin cewa kuɗi za su ƙara son biyan kuɗi don tabbatar da cewa "za a iya tantancewa, a iya isar da shi, kuma za a iya fansar sa." Saboda haka, "Shekarar Doki mai sa'a" ga Hong Kong da hannun jarin A ba ya dogara ne akan yin fare akan wani yanayi ɗaya ba, amma a cikin tantancewa bisa tsarin matakai uku:
• Babban mataki: Shin manufofi da ƙa'idoji sun bayyana (AI+, dual-carbon, kayayyakin more rayuwa na kwamfuta, jirgin sama na kasuwanci zuwa sararin samaniya); (Hukumar Labarai ta Xinhua)
•Mataki na tsakiya: Ko sarkar masana'antu ta samar da madauki a rufe (daga shigarwa zuwa umarni zuwa kwararar kuɗi);
• Babban Abin Da Ya Faru: Shin riba ta yi daidai da ƙimar farashi (musamman ga hannun jarin Hong Kong, waɗanda samun kuɗi ke ƙaruwa maimakon ƙima)? (Hang Seng Bank)
(Marubuta: Luo Liubin, Sui Yuan)
![[Hasashen Tattalin Arziki] Masana'antun kasar Sin suna bukatar samun rinjaye cikin gaggawa a duniya.](/upload/20260223/c08d444d1a136e.webp)
