Future of Tropical Forests
As COP30 approaches, with tropical forests as a central theme, it's worth exploring possible future scenarios. The following scenarios are a mix of improbable and emerging trends.
In 2024, the tropics lost 6.7 million hectares of primary rainforest, an area roughly the size of Panama, and nearly twice that of the previous year. Fires were the primary cause of this loss, a first in recorded history.
Factors contributing to this loss included drought in Brazil, which turned controlled burns into large-scale fires, and policy incentives in Bolivia, which exacerbated the problem. Even the Congo, previously a relatively stable region, began to show signs of decline.
Some say it might represent an inflection point.
However, the data suggests that this is not a turning point, but rather a continuation of long-standing problems that are now accelerating.
Author's summary: Tropical forests face accelerating loss due to fires and policy issues.