A cewar Bloomberg, mai tsara dabarun Bankin Amurka Hartnett ya ce manufofin cinikayyar Amurka na samar da sabuwar tsari a duniya, kuma masu zuba jari suna canzawa daga dala da hannun jarin Amurka zuwa kadarorin da ba na Amurka ba.
Hartnett ya rubuta a cikin rahotonsa cewa manufofin gwamnatin Trump na ƙara yawan tattalin arziki na nufin sabuwar yarjejeniya inda ake ciniki da komai sai dai dala, kuma keɓancewar Amurka na canzawa zuwa sake daidaita daidaito a duniya. Hartnett ya bayyana cewa wannan zai haɓaka hannun jarin da ba na Amurka ba, inda ake sa ran masu samar da kayayyaki na kasuwa masu tasowa za su amfana daga ƙaruwar buƙatar fasahar kere-kere. Ya kuma lura cewa har yanzu masu zuba jari ba su da isasshen rabo ga China da Indiya.
Kudaden sun yi ta kwarara sosai zuwa kasuwannin da suka ci gaba a wajen kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka.
Gudun kudaden ya tabbatar da ra'ayin Hartnett. A cewar bayanai daga EPFR Global da Bankin Amurka ya ambata, jimillar dala biliyan 104 sun shiga asusun hannun jari a Turai, Japan, da sauran kasuwannin duniya masu ci gaba a wannan shekarar, wanda ya zarce dala biliyan 25 da ke shiga asusun hannun jari na Amurka.
Tun bayan da shugaban Amurka Trump ya sanar da matakan harajinsa na tarihi a watan Afrilun bara, kadarorin Amurka sun kasance masu canzawa, yayin da matakin Trump ya haifar da damuwa game da ƙarshen mamayar Amurka a tattalin arzikin duniya da kasuwannin kuɗi. Duk da cewa Trump ya janye yawancin harajin, S&P 500 ya yi ƙasa a baya ga takwarorinsa na ƙasashen duniya, yayin da wani ma'aunin aikin dala ya faɗi da kashi 10% tun ƙarshen 2024.
Tun daga ƙarshen shekarar 2024, Hartnett ya ci gaba da fifita hannun jarin da ba na Amurka ba. Wannan hukunci ya tabbatar da inganci sosai—S&P 500 ya karu da kashi 15% a cikin wannan lokacin, amma ya yi ƙasa a bayan ribar MSCI World Index (tsohon Amurka) da kashi 39%.
Wannan sauyi a harkokin zuba jari ya bayyana tun farkon shekarar 2026. Tun daga lokacin, fitattun kasuwannin Turai, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu, da kuma masu tasowa sun yi fice a fannin hannun jarin Amurka. Tare da raguwar dala da ke kara yawan ribar da ake samu daga kasashen waje, cibiyoyi suna rage yawan jarin da suke zubawa a Amurka tare da komawa kasuwannin duniya masu rahusa. Manajan asusun sun ce na dogon lokaci, ana daukar kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka a matsayin kawai gonaki masu amfani a gida, amma wannan fahimta yanzu ta fara canzawa.
Wannan yanayin yana ƙara sauri. Bayanan Morningstar sun nuna cewa masu zuba jari sun ga jimillar dala biliyan 51.6 cikin asusun musayar hannun jari na duniya a watan Janairu; kuɗaɗen shiga kowane wata sun yi tashin gwauron zabi tun ƙarshen 2024.
Rashin darajar dala yana ƙara jan hankalin jarin ƙasashen waje.
Rashin ƙarfin dala shine babban abin da ke haifar da ƙaruwar jan hankali ga masu zuba jari a kasuwannin ƙasashen waje. Dalar ta faɗi da kusan kashi 10% daga mafi girman da ta samu a shekarar 2022, wanda hakan ke ƙara darajar ribar kamfanoni a ƙasashen waje, don haka yana ƙara ribar da ake samu daga hannun jari a ƙasashen waje.
Babban Jami'in Zuba Jari na Mercer Consulting, Carl Carney, ya yi tsokaci game da ribar da S&P 500 ta samu a bara, inda ya nuna damuwa game da makomar hannun jarin Amurka, ciki har da karuwar basussukan kasa da kuma sauyin siyasa da tattalin arziki da Trump ya kawo. Ya kara da cewa akwai shaidu da yawa da ke nuna cewa ba lallai ba ne a sayar da hannun jarin Amurka, amma ya kamata masu zuba jari su fara rage hannun jarinsu da kuma sake daidaita takardun hannun jarinsu don daukar hanyar da ta fi dacewa.
Masu zuba jari sun daɗe suna lura da yadda manyan sassa ke juyawa a kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka. Bayan shekaru uku a jere na samun gagarumin ci gaba a hannun jarin Amurka sakamakon karuwar saka hannun jarin fasahar zamani, 'yan kasuwa sun fara neman wani wuri don samun damar ci gaba. Ba wai kawai kasuwannin hannayen jari na ƙasashen waje ne ke amfana ba; ƙananan hannun jari na Amurka da masu hannun jari na blue-chip suma kwanan nan sun yi fice a manyan ma'auni. (Guo Zhiwen)
