Ana sa ran farashin zinare zai ci gaba da canzawa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, inda manyan bankuna ke cewa kasuwar zinare ba ta ƙare ba.

Faduwar farashin zinare da azurfa har yanzu ba ta daidaita ba. Farashin zinare ya faɗi ƙasa da dala $4,655 da sanyin safiyar jiya (6 ga wata) kafin ya dawo zuwa dala $4,800, wanda hakan ya rage ribar shekara zuwa yau zuwa 11%. Farashin azurfa ya faɗi zuwa dala $64 a wani lokaci kafin ya dawo zuwa dala $71, wanda hakan ya share ribar shekara zuwa yau.

Jiya a lokacin zaman Turai, an ƙiyasta farashin zinare na duniya akan $4,870.29 a kowace oza ta troy, wanda ya karu da 2.01%. Bayan faɗuwar kashi 3.8% a ranar ciniki da ta gabata, farashin zinare ya fara fuskantar koma baya sosai a yau, yana daidaitawa da sake farfaɗowa bayan ya kai ƙasa da $4,646.28, daga baya ya shiga yanayin da ke canzawa. Gabaɗaya, an tallafa masa da buƙatar mafaka mai aminci da raguwar darajar dala ta Amurka, wanda hakan ya mayar da wasu asarar da aka samu daga zaman Asiya. Tun daga ranar 30 ga Janairu, farashin zinare ya koma baya daga hauhawarsa kuma a halin yanzu yana cikin matakin haɗin gwiwa, amma kulawar masu zuba jari har yanzu tana da yawa.

Dangane da wannan koma-baya, manyan cibiyoyi gabaɗaya suna ganin sakin jiki ne na ɗan gajeren lokaci maimakon ƙarshen kasuwar bijimin. Duk da haka, wasu cibiyoyi suna jaddada cewa yayin da farashin zinare zai canza sosai a 2026, har yanzu akwai damar da za a ƙara daraja. JPMorgan Chase ta ɗaga hasashen farashin zinare na ƙarshen shekara ta 2026 zuwa $6,300 a kowace oza, tana mai ambaton ci gaba da buƙatar da ake da ita daga bankunan tsakiya da masu zuba jari a matsayin babban tallafi. Sayen zinare na babban bankin duniya ya kai tan 863 a 2025, kuma ana hasashen zai kai kimanin tan 800 a 2026, wanda ke nuna ci gaba da yanayin rarrabuwar ajiya. A halin yanzu, hannun jarin ETF na zinariya yana ƙaruwa, buƙatar sandunan zinare da tsabar kuɗi har yanzu suna da ƙarfi, kuma buƙatar masu zuba jari don haɗa zinare cikin fayil don kariya daga haɗarin siyasa na tattalin arziki da na yanki ya ci gaba da wuce tsammanin.

JPMorgan Chase ya annabta cewa zinare zai samar da fa'idar ciniki mai faɗi wanda zai iya ɗaukar tsawon watanni da yawa, sama da matakin tallafi na $4264 zuwa $4381 kuma ƙasa da matakin juriya na $5100 zuwa $5150. Jigon dogon lokaci na raguwar kuɗi ya kasance ba tare da wata matsala ba; matuƙar ma'aunin dala ya ci gaba da kasancewa ƙasa da 100, yanayin rashin ƙarfi na dala zai ci gaba da tallafawa dabarun bullish na dogon lokaci don karafa masu daraja da kayayyaki.

Zinariya muhimmiyar kadara ce ta kuɗi a cikin tsarin rage darajar kuɗi.

Wasu masu sharhi suna ganin cewa lokacin da farashin zinare da azurfa ya tashi, kasuwa ba ta ga wani tasiri mai mahimmanci na dukiya da ke haifar da tattalin arziki na gaske ba. Gyaran da ake yi a yanzu ba shi da wani tasiri sosai idan aka kwatanta da ribar da aka samu a baya, kuma masu zuba jari sun watse, ba su mai da hankali kan hannun wasu manyan masu zuba jari ko cibiyoyin kuɗi na tsarin. Saboda haka, da wuya ya haifar da manyan matsaloli. Matsalar da ta fi damuwa a yanzu ita ce a matakin kamfanoni daban-daban, kamar yawan amfani da kadarori masu alaƙa, maimakon daidaiton tsarin kuɗi gaba ɗaya. Duk da cewa faɗuwar farashi mai ƙarfi zai shafi kwarin gwiwar kasuwa, da wuya ya haifar da mummunan zagaye na koma baya.

Dangane da zinare kuwa, har yanzu babban kadara ce ta kuɗi kuma ana ɗaukarta a matsayin muhimmiyar kadara ta kuɗi a cikin tsarin rage darajar dala. Matsayinta na dogon lokaci a bayyane yake, kuma kodayake akwai sauyi, amma gabaɗaya yana da daidaito.

Ba a tsammanin cewa aikin azurfa na matsakaicin lokaci zuwa na dogon lokaci zai yi muni ba, amma canjinsa zai fi na zinariya girma sosai. Wannan saboda azurfa tana da amfani a masana'antu kuma tana da wasu halaye na hasashe na kuɗi. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, masu zuba jari da yawa suna kallon azurfa a matsayin kayan aiki don yin fare akan canjin farashi maimakon kadarar gargajiya mai aminci, wanda hakan ke haifar da hauhawar farashi. (Mai rahoto Guo Zhiwen)