Karuwar darajar bashi da kuma sake kimanta darajarsa a kasuwa na haifar da hauhawar farashin zinare, wanda har yanzu yana da damar yin hakan.

Farashin zinare na ƙasashen duniya, wanda ke ci gaba da hauhawa daga shekaru biyu da suka gabata, ya tashi zuwa mafi girman da ya kai sama da dala 5,600 a kowace oza a ƙarshen Janairu, kafin ya faɗi da sama da kashi 20%, yana tafiya a kusa da dala 5,100 jiya. Masu sharhi sun nuna cewa ci gaba da buƙatar zinare a yanzu yana nuna sake duba kasuwar duniya game da tsarin kuɗi na duniya da yanayin siyasa. Zinare ba wai kawai kadarar saka hannun jari ba ce kuma kadarar wucin gadi ce, amma kuma wani tanadi ne na dabarun magance rashin tabbas na dogon lokaci. Duan Nairong, Babban Masanin Dabaru na Zuba Jari na Asiya a RBC Wealth Management, ya yi imanin cewa wannan kasuwar zinare har yanzu tana da damar haɓakawa.

Farashin zinare yana samun sabon daidaito.

Masu sharhi sun ce hauhawar farashin zinare a halin yanzu yana nuna sabbin halaye. Tevis, mai tsara dabarun karafa masu daraja na UBS, ya yi imanin cewa kasuwa tana kan wani yanayi na canji; ainihin dabarun ƙimar riba wanda a da ya mamaye farashin zinare yana rasa tasirinsa, tare da jan hankalin mafaka mai aminci da sake kimanta bashi sun zama manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da shi. BlackRock ya yi imanin cewa, a kan yanayin da ake ciki na yawan basussuka a duniya, zinare, a matsayin kadara da ba ta dogara da alkawuran bashi na ƙasa ba, ya ƙara ƙarfin kaddarorinta masu jure haɗari, kuma tsarin farashinta yana canzawa daga farashin da ya dogara da farashi zuwa farashin da ya dogara da haɗari.

Sharhin ya nuna cewa shiga shekarar 2026, kasuwar duniya na shaida kasancewar dalar Amurka mai ƙarfi da kuma farashin zinariya mai ƙarfi. A al'ada, dalar Amurka mai ƙarfi yawanci tana danne farashin zinariya, amma alaƙar da ke tsakanin su biyun ta ragu sosai a wannan shekarar. Masu sharhi sun yi imanin cewa wannan yana nuna cewa farashin zinare yana neman sabon daidaito a ƙarƙashin tasirin abubuwa da yawa.

Mai ba da shawara kan harkokin zinare na State Street Global Advisors, John Downs, ya nuna cewa hanyoyin farashin kasuwa suna daidaitawa da sabon gaskiyar, kuma zinare yana nuna ƙarin halaye na kadarori masu zaman kansu. Ya yi imanin cewa ko da Babban Bankin Tarayya ya ci gaba da manufofin kuɗinsa, matuƙar rashin tsaro a yanayin tattalin arziki na duniya ya ci gaba, ƙarancin goyon bayan farashin zinare zai ci gaba da kasancewa mai ƙarfi, kuma kasuwa tana ƙirƙirar dabarun raba ci gaban tsaro.

Bankin Jama'a na China ya kara yawan ajiyar zinarensa na tsawon watanni 15 a jere. Kamfanin Dillancin Labarai na Xinhua ya nuna cewa sauyin da bankunan tsakiya na duniya ke yi a kasuwar zinare shi ma wani muhimmin abu ne da ke tallafawa yanayin farashin zinare na yanzu. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, bankunan tsakiya na duniya sun sauya daga masu sayar da zinare zuwa masu sayen zinare, kuma sayen zinarensu ya zama na dogon lokaci. Wannan yana nuna sake duba tsaron kadarorin ajiya ta kasashe daban-daban a cikin yanayin siyasa na yanzu, tare da karuwar ajiyar zinare ya zama matakin kariya na dabarun.

Sharhin ya ambaci hasashen Bankin Amurka cewa tasirin zinare mai kyau ba zai ragu da sauri ba kafin yanayin siyasa da tsarin bashi na duniya ya shiga sabon lokaci na kwanciyar hankali. Yanayin farashin zinare na yanzu yana nuna cewa aikin zinare yana canzawa daga kayan aikin saka hannun jari mai sauƙi zuwa wani muhimmin ginshiki na tsaron tattalin arzikin ƙasa, kuma sauyin farashi zai ci gaba da nuna canje-canje a yanayin siyasa da tattalin arziki na duniya.

Bankunan tsakiya a faɗin duniya suna ci gaba da siyan zinare mai yawa.

Bugu da ƙari, ƙaruwar haɗarin siyasa da hauhawar bashin gwamnati ya sa ba zai yiwu bankunan tsakiya su daina siyan zinare ba, koda kuwa saurin sayayya ya ragu, wanda ya yi daidai da yanayin siyan zinare na shekaru uku da suka gabata.

Bayanan binciken kayayyaki na JPMorgan sun tabbatar da wannan yanayi: ana sa ran sayen zinare na babban bankin duniya zai ci gaba da kasancewa a matakin da ya kai kimanin tan 755 a shekarar 2026, matakin da ya fi matsakaicin tarihi kafin shekarar 2022.

Manyan tattalin arzikin Asiya za su ci gaba da mamaye sayayya ta zinariya a hukumance, kamar yadda suka yi a kasuwar saka hannun jari ta dillalai. Duk da karuwar da aka samu a hannun jarin zinare a cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, ajiyar zinare a matsayin kaso na jimillar ajiyar da aka yi ya kasance ƙasa. A halin yanzu, zinare yana da ƙasa da kashi 9% na ajiyar kuɗin ƙasashen waje, ƙasa da matakan sauran ƙasashe masu tasowa.

Farashin zinare ya faɗi bayan ya kai wani matsayi mafi girma a ƙarshen watan da ya gabata, inda ya faɗi da kusan kashi 20%. Reuters ta ambato Duan Nairong, babban mai tsara dabarun saka hannun jari na Asiya a RBC Wealth Management, yana cewa kasuwar zinare ta yanzu har yanzu tana da damar tashi, kuma koma-baya bayan hauhawar farashi mai ƙarfi ba abin mamaki ba ne. Yana tsammanin farashin zinare zai ci gaba da canzawa da daidaitawa a kwata na farko na wannan shekarar, wanda a lokacin wasu damarmaki na kasuwanci na ɗan gajeren lokaci za su bayyana.

Duan Nairong ya bayyana cewa karuwar farashin zinare a yanzu har yanzu ba ta da wani tasiri kamar kasuwannin bijimai na 1971-1974 da 1976-1980, duka biyun sun shafe sama da shekaru uku. Bugu da ƙari, kowace kasuwar bijimai tana tare da babban gyara, tare da matsakaicin girman gyara na 17% da matsakaicin tsawon kwanaki 80.

Ta yi nuni da cewa a matsakaici zuwa dogon lokaci, karuwar ajiyar zinare da bankunan tsakiya na duniya ke yi zai samar da tallafi na dogon lokaci ga farashin zinare, kuma kasashe masu tasowa har yanzu suna da babban damar kara ajiyar zinarensu; kaso na zinare da masu zuba jari ke rike da shi a jimillar kadarorinsu ya kai kashi 2.8% kacal a karshen watan Satumbar bara, kuma ba mafarki ba ne a tashi zuwa kashi 4% zuwa 5% a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Canje-canjen da ake samu a halin yanzu a yanayin tattalin arziki da ruwa sun haifar da babban karo a wasu abubuwa da ke haifar da karafa masu daraja da kasuwannin hannayen jari na Hong Kong da babban yankin kasar, wanda ke haifar da karuwar da faduwa akai-akai a lokaci guda. (Mai rahoto Guo Zhiwen)