[Fahimtar Kasuwa] Tasirin da bayanai na "Aikin Albashi na Noma da CPI" suka yi kan dala ta Amurka da kuma bambancin da ke tsakanin hannun jarin Amurka.

Farfesa Li Huifen na Ƙungiyar Ofishin Iyali ta Yankin Greater Bay

An dage rahoton albashin da ake sa ran samu daga manoma a watan Janairun Amurka zuwa 11 ga Fabrairu, yayin da rahoton Farashin Masu Amfani da Kaya na Janairu (CPI) shi ma aka jinkirta har zuwa 13 ga Fabrairu. Wannan yana nufin cewa wannan makon ba wai kawai makon ciniki na ƙarshe ne kafin Bikin Bazara ba, har ma zai ga tasirin bayanan "ma'aikata na ba na gona ba + CPI".

Matakin dage taron ya fi faruwa ne saboda katsewar tattara bayanai da aka samu sakamakon rufewar gwamnatin Amurka na wani bangare. Duk da cewa gwamnatin Trump ta cimma yarjejeniyar raba kudaden shiga da 'yan Democrat na Majalisar Dattawa kuma ta kawo karshen rufewar a daren ranar 3 ga wannan watan, har yanzu ma'aikatar kwadago tana bukatar lokaci don kammala tattara bayanai da tabbatar da su.

Kasuwar gabaɗaya tana sa ran albashin ma'aikata na Amurka waɗanda ba na gona ba zai ƙaru da kusan 60,000 a watan Janairu, wanda ya ɗan fi ƙaramin ƙaruwa na 50,000 kawai a watan Disamba. Ana sa ran adadin rashin aikin yi zai ci gaba da kasancewa da kashi 4.4%, ba tare da canzawa ba idan aka kwatanta da watan da ya gabata. Ya kamata a lura cewa bayanan albashi na ADP na makon da ya gabata waɗanda ba na gona ba sun nuna cewa kamfanoni masu zaman kansu sun ƙara ayyuka 22,000 kacal a watan Janairu, ba wai kawai ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani na 45,000 ba, har ma da nuna sabon koma baya a cikin 'yan shekarun nan. Wannan bayanai ya nuna cewa kasuwar ma'aikata ta Amurka tana ci gaba da kasancewa cikin yanayin "ƙarancin ma'aikata, ƙarancin korar ma'aikata."

Rahoton albashi na wannan shekarar wanda ba na gona ba zai kuma haɗa da gyare-gyare ga bayanan aiki na shekara-shekara. Kasuwar tana tsammanin bayanan da aka sake duba su nuna cewa ci gaban ayyukan yi na Amurka a cikin shekarar da ta fara daga Maris 2025 zai yi rauni fiye da kiyasin farko. Idan aka sake duba bayanan tarihi zuwa ƙasa, zai sake fasalin ra'ayoyin kasuwa game da lafiyar kasuwar aiki ta Amurka fiye da bayanan albashi na wata guda na ba na gona ba, don haka yana tasiri ga shawarwarin manufofin Tarayyar Tarayya.

Bugu da ƙari, an sake tsara rahoton CPI na watan Janairu, wanda aka tsara a ranar 11 ga wata, zuwa ranar 13 ga wata. Kasuwa tana sa ran ƙimar CPI na shekara-shekara na watan Janairu zai kasance kusan kashi 2.7%, daidai da adadin Disamba.

Duk da cewa Babban Bankin Tarayya ya cire kalmar "hauhawar farashi ya karu" bayan taron manufofinsa na watan Janairu, rashin tabbas na baya-bayan nan game da manufofin harajin kwastam da kuma mannewar hauhawar farashi a fannin ayyuka sun sanya kasuwa cikin fargaba game da hasashen hauhawar farashi.

Mary Daly, shugabar Bankin Tarayya na San Francisco, ta yi imanin cewa ana buƙatar ƙarin rage darajar riba ɗaya ko biyu don magance matsalar da ke ƙara yin rauni a kasuwar aiki. Ta damu musamman game da halin da ma'aikata ke ciki, inda hauhawar farashi ke rage albashi da kuma ƙarancin damar aiki. Ta nuna cewa wahalhalun da waɗanda suka kammala karatun jami'a ke fuskanta kwanan nan wajen neman aiki alamu ne na damuwa na raunin kasuwar aiki.

Duk da cewa Daly ba ta da ƙuri'a a kwamitin tsara ƙimar riba na Babban Bankin Tarayya a wannan shekarar, tana shiga cikin tarurrukan manufofi; ra'ayoyinta suna ba da haske game da tattaunawar da ke gudana tsakanin jami'an Babban Bankin Tarayya.

Tsammanin raguwar darajar riba a baya ya haifar da ƙaruwar hannun jari a Amurka a ranar Juma'a, 6 ga Yuni. Matsakaicin masana'antu na Dow Jones ya tashi da maki 1,206, ko kuma kashi 2.47%, inda ya rufe da maki 50,115, wanda ya wuce maki 50,000 a karon farko. S&P 500 ya tashi da kashi 1.97% zuwa rufewa a 6,932, kuma Nasdaq Composite ya tashi da kashi 2.18% zuwa rufewa a 23,031.

Idan aka yi la'akari da jadawalin yanayin, ana sa ran Dow Jones Industrial Average zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa a wannan makon; duk da haka, Nasdaq da S&P 500 ba su da ƙarfin haɓakawa kuma wataƙila zai canza a duk tsawon makon.

(Ba ni da ɗaya daga cikin hannun jarin da aka ambata a sama.)